Tuesday 6 October 2026 · 3 min read
Expectations for personal finances fell six points in September
In the 29 September issue I wrote that consumer confidence was at a two-year high. A week later, the British Retail Consortium's (BRC) sentiment survey points the other way.
The Budget is starting to weigh on people
The two surveys ask different questions at slightly different times, so they can both be right. GfK picked up a slow improvement over the summer. The BRC's September numbers suggest it stalled as the month went on. The BRC put the change down to the Budget.
What I find interesting is the bottom row of the chart. People's plans for overall spending didn't move. They expect to feel poorer, but they aren't planning to spend less overall, at least not yet. That usually means spending gets shuffled around, and the categories that lose are the ones people can easily put off.
If you sell things people can put off, the weeks before the Budget are when shoppers will need the clearest reason to buy now rather than wait.
September was a poor month for the high street
BDO's High Street Sales Tracker for discretionary retail categories had like-for-like sales down 0.3% in September, its weakest result since 2019, against growth of 3.1% a year earlier. Online sales fell 1.1%. BDO's Sophie Michael called the results "deeply concerning", adding that "even online sales have fallen".
Shop prices are only edging up. The BRC shop price monitor had shop price inflation easing to 1.4% in September, with food at 2.5% (from 2.8%) and non-food at 0.8%. So the weak sales look like people choosing to hold back.
Overheard this week
“[Confidence] stumbled after four months of improvement.”
She was commenting on the BRC's September survey with Opinium. "With the Budget looming large," she said, shoppers want the government to put the cost of living first. Until they know what's coming, that worry is holding back the spending the better confidence numbers had promised.
Also worth knowing
The new energy price cap is now in force. Since 1 October the typical dual-fuel bill has been £1,723 a year, up £60. VAT has come off electricity until the end of March, which kept the rise about £45 smaller than it would have been.
Online didn't escape the September slowdown. Alongside the 1.1% fall in online sales value BDO found, the CBI's retail survey had online sales volumes in the year to September falling at the fastest rate since October 2023.
Coming up
Thursday 8 October: Tesco half-year results
Mid-October: Barclays and BRC-KPMG for September, plus Worldpanel and NIQ grocery figures
Wednesday 28 October: the Budget
That's it for this week. Reply and tell me what you're seeing.
Chris