Tuesday 29 September 2026 · 3 min read
Confidence has climbed 12 points since April, to a two-year high
GfK's consumer confidence index rose another point to −13 in September. In April it was −25.
People feel better, but they're putting the money away
That 12-point rise in the headline score is a nice story, but I'd look further down the same release. The Savings Index jumped five points to +27, while the Major Purchase Index, which asks whether now is a good time to buy big things, slipped a point to −8.
Favouring saving over big purchases fits what I wrote in the 22 September issue about shoppers waiting for deals. It's caution with a slightly better mood attached.
Two things could knock confidence back this autumn. The energy price cap goes up 4% on Thursday, and the Budget is on 28 October. I'll be watching whether more people think it's a good time to save as both get closer.
If you sell sofas, kitchens or TVs, a better mood alone won't do it. Expect people to need a clear reason to spend now rather than keep the cash.
Overheard this week
“With inflation, energy and fuel prices rising, could we soon see consumer sentiment falter?”
He was asking the question in the September confidence release (GfK Consumer Confidence Barometer powered by NIM). People feel better, but confidence is still below zero and prices are still climbing. On balance, they think it's a good time to save and a poor time to buy big, which suggests they don't yet trust that things will keep getting better.
Also worth knowing
Butter beans had a moment. NIQ found sales of canned beans (excluding baked beans) up 10.1% in the four weeks to 5 September, with butter beans up 31.5%. Cheap, filling and healthy-ish is a strong combination right now.
More people are trying to drink less. In Drinkaware's 2026 survey, 39% said they'd tried to cut down in the past year, up from 36%.
School uniform is the top back-to-school worry for parents. Save the Children said nearly half of the parents it polled named uniform costs as their main financial worry about their children going back to school.
Coming up
End of September: BRC shop price monitor and BRC consumer sentiment
Thursday 1 October: energy price cap rises to £1,723 a year
Early October: BDO high street sales tracker for September
Thursday 8 October: Tesco half-year results
That's it for this week. Reply and tell me what you're seeing.
Chris