Tuesday 27 October 2026 · 3 min read
Confidence fell 11 points in October, as steep a fall as after the Brexit vote
The GfK Consumer Confidence Barometer powered by NIM fell from −13 to −24 in October, and every measure in the index went down. Neil Bellamy, GfK's consumer insights director, says the summer's buoyant mood "has evaporated", taking confidence back to where it was in April, May and June.
Fuel is eating into budgets, and big purchases are on hold
In the 29 September issue I wrote about confidence at a two-year high. People no longer feel better, but on balance they still think now is a good time to save: GfK's Savings Index rose a point to +28. The Major Purchase Index, which asks whether now is a good time to buy big items, fell 14 points to −22.
Fuel is part of the story. Petrol averaged 169.5p a litre in September, the highest since August 2022, and diesel averaged 192.5p, the ONS says. Motor fuel prices (petrol and diesel) were 29.8% higher than a year earlier, and they helped push inflation up to 3.5% from 3.1%.
Our £30-tank shopper from the 22 September issue is still filling up. The ONS retail figures have fuel volumes rising in September "despite fuel prices continuing to rise", while total retail volumes fell 0.4% and non-food stores fell 0.4%. Retailers told the ONS that customers were cutting back.
If you sell big-ticket items, don't bank on Black Friday unlocking pent-up demand: on balance, people think it's a good time to save and a poor time to buy big, so offers need to give them a reason to buy now. If you sell non-essentials, assume the extra spent at the pump is coming out of your category. GfK's fieldwork ended 14 October, so its 20 November release will be the first read after Wednesday's Budget.
Overheard this week
“October's sharp fall in consumer confidence and the dip in retail sales volumes in September show that times are getting tougher for households just as the all-important festive period for retailers is just around the corner.”
He was speaking to City AM on 23 October. Retailers go into their peak season with confidence back where it was in the spring and the Budget still to come.
Also worth knowing
Food prices are still rising, slowly. Food and non-alcoholic drink inflation held at 1.3% in September, the ONS says. It was last lower in September 2021.
Online kept growing. Online spending was 6.8% higher than a year earlier in September and made up 28.8% of retail sales, the ONS found.
The warm September left autumn ranges unsold. Online clothing retailers told the ONS their autumn/winter ranges "did not perform well because of the unseasonably warm weather". It was the joint-fourth warmest September on record.
Coming up
Date not yet confirmed: BRC Shop Price Monitor for October
Wednesday 28 October: the Budget
Thursday 5 November: Bank of England interest rate decision
That's it for this week. Reply and tell me what you're seeing.
Chris