Tuesday 20 October 2026 · 3 min read
Grocery inflation has risen two months running, to 2.5%
For most of this year, food prices were the one bit of good news. Worldpanel's latest figures suggest that's over, at least for now.
Shoppers are answering with deals again
Spending on promotions in the latest four weeks was more than £250m higher than a year ago. Worldpanel says offers are helping people keep bills in check and making pricier items and bigger packs affordable. This is the deal-led loyalty I wrote about in the 22 September issue, four weeks on and still growing.
If you manage a brand, deals are doing more of the work again as prices rise. Plan Q4 promotions on that basis, and expect full-price sales to stay soft until the Budget is out of the way.
Fuel spending jumped 17.3%, and two in three are worried about the Budget
The £30-tank shopper from the 22 September issue had a harder month. Barclays card data showed essential spending up 2.5% in September, and most of that came from the forecourt.
Diesel passed £2 a litre for the first time at the start of October, according to the RAC.
Barclays also asked people about the Budget: 68% said they were concerned about its impact on their finances, and 30% said they were cutting back on non-essential spending. Confidence in household finances still rose to 67%, a seven-month high. So people feel they're coping, but they're nervous about what's coming.
Overheard this week
“More than half tell us they're very or extremely worried about petrol prices.”
He was reporting what Worldpanel's shopper panel said, and added: "Until the Chancellor sets out his plans, we expect that caution to carry on showing up at the till."
Also worth knowing
Halloween is getting bigger. About 1.2 million households bought a pumpkin in the latest four weeks, up 10%, and more than 250,000 bought a pumpkin spice coffee, according to Worldpanel.
The pub is holding up. Spending at bars, pubs and clubs rose 3.8% in September, the fourth month of growth in a row, Barclays found.
Health and beauty had its best month of the year. The BRC had total sales up 1.3% in September. Clothing struggled in the warm weather, and toys got a lift from Pokémon's 30th anniversary.
A warm September kept summer in the basket. NIQ had mineral water up 17.4%, soft drinks up 12.9% and ice cream up 11.7%, while hot chocolate fell 11%.
Coming up
Wednesday 21 October: ONS inflation for September
Friday 23 October: ONS retail sales for September
Late October: GfK consumer confidence for October
Wednesday 28 October: the Budget
That's it for this week. Reply and tell me what you're seeing.
Chris